Poland remains one of Ukraine’s main partners in the fight against Russian aggression and a strong voice in the EU and NATO, which supports the Euro-Atlantic ambitions of our state. Despite some tension between the two countries, which had until recently existed around the issue of Ukrainian agricultural exports, Warsaw's strategic position remains unchanged – Ukraine must win the war and needs help. The Ambassador of Poland to Ukraine, Jaroslaw Guzy, spoke with Ukrinform last week, touching on many pressing issues, including the prospects of nuclear arms deployment on Polish territory, importance of joining NATO, strengths and weaknesses of Russian propaganda, vulnerabilities of democracies in the ongoing information war, and reasons behind the protests of Polish farmers, as well as expectations of the Global Peace Summit.
I EXPECT MORE CAPABILITIES TO BE COMING TO UKRAINE FROM POLAND, INCLUDING DRONES
You came to Kyiv in December, and then in January the Russians started to massively shell the city, launching barrages of missiles and drones. Were you mentally prepared for such challenges? How do you react to air raid alerts? Do you always proceed to shelter?
Of course, I was prepared, understood the risks, but I’m a quiet person. I never went to shelter but at some point, I should. I went to Kharkiv a month ago and I saw the difference in the level of security. You do have to obey the rules and react properly. But panic is no good reaction.
What is your general impression of the country and of Kyiv in particular? Perhaps you have some favorite locations or spots?
I was here a number of times more than 20 years ago, including to Western Ukraine, so Ukraine is to some extent familiar to me. As for Kyiv, it's a beautiful city. The Dnipro River, all those monuments, fantastic hills… Even during the war, it’s still a very lively city, with people enjoying their day out on the streets, trying to forget about the war. This is also some sort of resistance.
We all want Kyiv to be as protected as possible. Speaking of that, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland has no Patriot systems to hand over to Ukraine but it does support Ukraine by supplying other armaments that help the nation protect its sky. Is there any clarity as to the exact systems the government chief referred to? Are there any precise agreements on Poland joining any particular coalition within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group?
Where we are part of the Tanks Coalition. However, the policy of the previous and current government is that we provide no information about specific batches or general numbers. We provided everything but we had, especially at the beginning. We emptied our stocks immediately – tanks, airplanes... We didn't have red lines at all. This could be a bit confusing when one of our officials said we are not going to supply any more weapons. But the thing was that our stocks had been emptied. The problem is whether we are able to provide more in a sense of additional production.
We’re only behind the U.S., Germany (especially now), and Great Britain in arms supplies. But I expect more will be coming from Poland, for example, it’s about munitions production, drone production.
We’re not in the Coalition of Drones along with Latvia and Great Britain but there are some talks going on involving our arms industry firms, both private and state-owned, so I hope there will be something fruitful, especially for next year, which will be crucial for the war as such.
DEPLOYING NUKES IN NATO’S EASTERN FLANK SENDS A POWERFUL SIGNAL TO RUSSIA
Recently, President Andrzej Duda said the country is ready to place nuclear arms on its soil, the Nuclear Sharing program. How do government officials and average Poles perceive this idea? Does this imply that Poland is de-facto preparing for a potential nuclear threat coming from Russia?
This is about deterrence. This is about providing safety measures to avoid war. Everybody knows that using nuclear weapons is a last resort as it is laid down in the NATO Doctrine. This is about providing balance.
After Poland joined NATO, together with other countries from Eastern Europe, we were more like political allies because there were no military plans to defend us and the Baltic States. It has changed. And as it often happens, it was Russia that did something decisive to this end. The change happened due to their aggressive behavior.
So finally, we invited U.S. troops. And those are more important than others in NATO. NATO is not like the EU. In NATO, there’s a very clear leader, which is the U.S. So for us it was victory, it was like saying “when somebody attacks us, they also attack U.S troops.”
And now with this Nuclear Sharing, it’s exactly the same. It's not an aggressive move toward Russia although the latter portrays it this way. See, the Russians have already done this in Belarus. So this is our reaction.
Poland is one of the key pillars of NATO’s eastern flank. It could also be Romania, for example, the nation on the southeastern border. Poland, the country close to Ukraine, is an especially good place to do it.
There’s nothing wrong with saying that we need some reassurances. If you want to avoid war, you have to prepare to war. You have to show that you are ready to respond in any way at any time. This sends a powerful signal to Russia because they understand only this language.
You said that NATO has changed over the years since Poland joined. Can you say at the moment that you are more sure, or that you are sure, of security guarantees that NATO will provide to Poland, in case it is attacked?
Yes. I'm sure. It’s entirely different than it was back in 1999. Of course, it would be much better if Russia was a peaceful neighbor but it’s not. Unfortunately, we had to wait until our Western allies, especially the U.S., realized that Russia is a real threat for peace in our part of Europe, and also around the globe.
POLAND IS NOT AN IMPERIAL STATE SO CLAIMS OF ANNEXATION PLANS ARE NONSENSE
Is there a public consensus at the moment in Poland or a public debate going on about the potential risk of Poland getting into a direct war with Russia?
Well, people have had it in mind but there is a difference between the level of threat perception. You earlier asked me about the situation in Kyiv and whether I feel the threat. I'm in the center of Kyiv, the city that is well protected, so I'm generally safe, and as for the Poles, I would say the same.
A lot has been done to provide safety for our country. But when you have a country like Russia with a psychopath in power, anything can happen. Also, sometimes, it could be accidental. I remember talking to my Danish friend who served in air defense during the Cold War, they were seeing Soviet planes coming at full speed to the Danish border, and the question was whether they turn back or not. So in military planning, you have to be prepared for war even if the risk of war is not too high.
What do you think is the ultimate aid of Russia’s statements alleging Poland's plans to allegedly annex part of Ukraine? Also, Belarus’s Aleksandr Lukashenko once again spoke of the alleged preparation of sabotage groups to penetrate one of his country’s regions. Does Poland expect any acts of provocation in this regard?
We have to be ready for these propaganda attacks, including regarding the alleged annexation plans. However, I'm not sure anybody would believe it in Poland or in Ukraine. It doesn't make sense at all.
Our part of Europe behind the Iron Curtain was frozen. But what happened in the Balkans? Older conflicts could emerge as new conflicts. But I think in our part of Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, we learned that lesson to not come back to old conflicts.
By the way, the Czechs owe us some couple hundred hectares of land and they still keep it (laughs – ed.). But this is the only border issue we have.
Poland is not an imperial country. With Ukraine, the only issues are historical ones but in general, it’s simply a good positive future of working together our making neighborhood safer and with good welfare for all of us.
POLES’ INITIAL REACTION TO WAR WAS A CALLING OF “HISTORICAL GENES”
Russia is trying to exploit the existing issues, including historical ones, and they run a really extensive network of propagandists, who promote the narratives that try to pit the nations against each other. Do you feel that Russia is now Increasing its propaganda presence in Poland?
Russia is of course more active. It depends on the level of aggression in Russian politics. They created instruments for propaganda using their technology. If somebody listened to Putin some 20 years ago, everyone would know that it is obviously an aggressive policy. That’s the way we saw it in Poland.
Perhaps for that reason we now have almost no presence of Russian business. Russian investment is not welcome. They did try to gain some influence, using their old networks of the Communist power structure. But it was a long time ago. Later, we're able to establish quite stable state institutions and policies regarding Russia.
Today they may be successful in targeting some segments of society but it's always just a margin.
They exploit the existing issues, they try to find some anti-Ukrainian resentment, including through history. But they are no good in creating new conflicts. They did try to do something about that one conflict that is based on simple economy…
The border issue?
Yeah, they tried. To some extent, they tried to find some radicals. It does have some effect of course, but it is not decisive at all.
Support for Ukraine stands strong, although the share of those distancing themselves from Ukraine has grown a bit wider than at the beginning of war, when there was this spontaneous reaction, which I called “historical genes”. So initially it was five percent distancing themselves, and now it’s close to 15 percent. But more than 70 percent remain very supportive.
We might have just one party with a not-so-obvious anti-Ukrainian agenda but its influence is marginal. Of course, it might so happen in a democracy when marginal parties or political figures play a key role. You saw what happened in the U.S. with that minor part of the Republican party.
MY ADVICE TO POLISH FARMERS WAS: GET YOUR TRACTORS AND GO TO BRUSSELS
Do you think that the West is lagging in the ongoing information war with Russia?
Of course, it’s lagging but there are natural reasons behind that. Given the freedom of speech principle, fighting Russian propaganda is always harder for democracies. Democracy is weaker in that sense. You cannot just forbid things.
It's like that with Polish farmers. You have a whole system protecting freedoms, the court system. For example, it was a court in Lublin that decided that protesters are allowed to rally for a long time. So what can the government do with a court order? Nothing. It’s democracy.
However, I praised Czech courts, for example, because they were able to sentence people for distributing Russian war propaganda. In Poland, courts would hesitate to do it, and I don't know why.
Generally speaking, democracies are weak in shorter terms but in the long term, of course, dictatorships are weaker. I compare them with glass. It does seem strong but when it breaks, it breaks. Democracy is flexible. You pay the price for that but certainly it is a better system.
As for the blockades, thankfully, the last remaining checkpoint that was being blocked, is now unblocked, with cargo crossing with no interruptions. Do you think the March meeting of government officials contributed to the issue being resolved? What made the push?
It did contribute a lot. The government decided to apply soft measures for obvious reasons. Support for farmers’ general demands, not related to Ukraine, was expressed by more than 75 percent of the population. And unfortunately, this problem was allowed to become almost unsolvable because when you react too late, the problem grows. And especially when you have, in this case, at least three parties – Polish government, Ukraine authorities, and Brussels. All these parties had some instruments to solve this problem at the beginning. But it was never done. And later we saw farmers get radicalized and confused about the reasons behind their problems. And, finally, they stopped trusting anyone. When you have social unrest amid this lack of trust, it's very difficult to talk. Finally, soft measures paid off.
My advice to Polish farmers was “go to Brussels with your tractors because the keys to resolving the problem were there”. On the Ukrainian side, there was a mistake because Ukraine thought that whatever Brussels decided, they have the right to do. It doesn't work this way in the European Union. You saw protests of farmers in Brussels, also in Italy, France, the Netherlands… And what happened? The Green Deal was softened under this pressure. That's democracy.
But Brussels remains closer to France, Germany, and Benelux countries than to Poland. At the beginning, when our government tried to convince Brussels to do something about the impact of the uncontrolled import of agricultural products from Ukraine destroying our market, Brussels said it did not affect the European market and was only related to a peripheral market. Ukraine should remember that the periphery is not a nice place.
I remember what protesters said: “We want to wrap up this protest because we don't want to be blamed for Ukraine’s problems.” See? an anti-Ukrainian element was almost not present. It was really an economic problem of farmers who were looking at their next harvest.
Prices globally are very low because of Russian exports dumping these prices. By the way, this year, don’t buy Italian pasta because it is made from Russian grain. That’s quite a complicated problem and in order to solve it you have to dig deeper into facts.
Should the protest ever resume, we heard the Polish government wanted to make those border checkpoints part of critical infrastructure that would disallow any rallies or protests on their territory or around them. Is this issue still in the debate stage or has any decision been passed on the issue?
Well, the decision was made and this is right because the border is one of the features of the state. I think the idea was just to send a message that this protest cannot go on forever. It’s ultimately the government that decides whether to keep the border open or closed.
Recently, Defense Minister Wladislaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said Poland would be ready to help Ukraine ensure the return of draft-age male citizens. But then Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the issue was ethically challenging. Is there a unified position of the Polish government in this regard?
There is no response as of this moment. For that reason, we hear different voices coming from the government. We're in a very special situation, different from certain Western countries, because we have millions of Ukrainians.
It's quite difficult to imagine that the Polish government will send them to Ukraine by force. This is not the way it goes. Germany said these men can stay even if they don't have valid travel documents. I expect that there will be also some discussion among EU countries.
We understand very well the situation of the Ukrainian government. Generally, we have the same historic experience: if there is war, you have to defend yourself. But in practice, not all people are willing to do that. I remember how in the beginning of the full skale war, many Ukrainian men were returning to Ukraine. But I understand that all volunteers have already done so. Maybe some incentives will help...
A lot depends on the situation in Ukraine regarding war. Because now it is a very difficult situation, and the spirit is in a really bad condition because Russians are prevailing. Until weeks ago, there was an open question whether there would be supplies from the West, especially from the U.S. So I understand that people were thinking about whether this war could be won or not. I wish the Ukrainians living in Poland good spirit.
My personal opinion is that this (serving in the army – ed.) is a duty. But my personal opinion doesn’t mean I would give a piece of advice to anybody to push people, who don't want to go to Ukraine, to fight.
REFORM OF THE EU MUST NOT DELAY UKRAINE’S ACCESSION
It is expected that in June, the EU will approve the negotiating framework for Ukraine’s accession and announce the first intergovernmental conference. In this context, what steps can Poland take to support Ukraine's path toward the EU?
We have the opportunity because we have a crucial half-year presidency from the beginning of next year. Accession talks are a long run. But we will certainly do everything to speed them up. Poland is among a couple of countries in Europe where most of society supports Ukraine’s membership.
You remember, the first voices supporting the idea of Ukraine becoming a candidate were met with “Oh sorry, we have to reform the European Union first and later we can discuss your membership plans.”
But reforming the European Union is more difficult than giving membership to all countries applying, even to Turkey.
When you listened to the expose of our Foreign Minister Sikorski, you heard words about reforming the EU. Well, this should not be linked in any way to accession talks. We remember very well that at the beginning of Poland’s path, the EU promised us a couple of years waiting. And we waited 14 years. Of course it was disadvantageous for us. We opened our market, for example, but the EU didn’t open its market to us. It was a game.
So you will see the same kind of game but Poland will do everything, using its own experience, not playing any games trying to delay the process. Also, everybody in Europe knows what Ukraine is going through. With all the challenges, all the reforms it has to make, it deserves to be part of Europe. If we talk generally about integrated Europe, in the east Europe stretches up to the Russian border – I mean the real Russian border not occupied areas. This is a fundamental thing that doesn’t seem obvious to our Western European friends. I remember some discussions in 2014 and 2015 about Crimea… Some believed Crimea is part of Russia.
Ignorance is a powerful weapon used by Russia because they will try to destroy all your dreams about joining Western structures. I'm talking about the EU and NATO.
We went to NATO five years earlier than to the EU because security comes first and welfare comes a bit later. You cannot have welfare when you are not secure. Joining NATO is more like jumping across the wall. It's very hard to do, the wall is very high, but this is basically a political decision. As regards the EU, it is more technical and complex.
I remember tons of legislation our Parliament had to adopt. It wasn’t just thousands of pages, there were cartons of documents. So it’s too much bureaucracy. Everybody has problems with EU bureaucrats but it’s better to complain once you’re in. So I wish you exactly this.
RECOVERY TO BECOME ONE OF AREAS OF WORK AT POLAND-UKRAINE COUNCIL
Bilateral cooperation is easier to understand. Polish Government will create the Council on cooperation with Ukraine, which will include scholars, entrepreneurs, government and local government officials. What are the areas of potential cooperation? What projects will be actively developing?
I think there are two fields. One is generally to establish a complex relation, to provide some institutional framework for political cooperation. Second is a more practical thing, the recovery issue. We do a lot of activity but it is not systematic and it should be put in order. For that reason, for example, we go frequently to Kharkiv because there was an idea about concentrating our reconstruction efforts on one of the regions. Kharkiv is very challenging but it's important as well.
We are looking for Ukrainian partners regarding business. We have a list of 3, 000 companies willing to work in Ukraine. Some of them are already present, some have Ukrainian partners. They are often small and medium-sized businesses. Of course, we don’t offer such financial support as wealthier countries but we try to be very active.
Another political track. What will be Poland's priorities during its presidency of the Visegrad Group? How will relations be built with Slovakia and Hungary, both of which have a different approach to Russia and its ongoing war against Ukraine?
Of course, there are differences that are obvious. What’s important is to keep the group of countries together even with all the differences everybody knows about. There are differences between Slovakia and Hungary. Now we cooperate more closely with Czechs. Governments use to change. There can be a variety of cooperation configurations but there is political culture we should keep. So, I expect Polish presidency in the Visegrad Group to keep these liaisons as much as is possible.
WE HAVE TO CONVINCE GLOBAL SOUTH THAT SUPPORTING THE PEACE FORMULA IS THE RIGHT THING
In June, we'll have the inaugural Global Peace Summit held in Switzerland. What expectations does Poland have of the Summit? Are your top officials planning to participate in the event?
It really will be presence at the highest level, President and government. Poland puts a lot of emphasis on the Peace Formula, which is the only acceptable one to us in terms of justice and international law, but of course we do not have too many expectations because we see what the situation is.
The most important issue is to keep these peace talks running and to have as many as possible countries engage, especially countries from outside, the so-called like-minded coalition, supporting Ukraine. You know what countries I’m talking about. China is a special issue. Nobody knows whether China will come or not. China is a quiet ally of Russia. I’m talking about India, Brazil, African countries, and Asian countries. Those for whom this war is very distant so we need to convince them that supporting the Peace Formula is the right thing to do.
I expect that some issues will be raised subject to support by a large number of countries – humanitarian issues, for example, war crimes committed by Russia, a threat of a nuclear catastrophe. It is an ongoing effort to keep global public opinion behind the Ukraine cause.
The realities, unfortunately, at least for now, are that no peace should be expected this year. I'm pessimistic, or realistic here. This year, Ukraine, I hope, will defend itself with the support of allies. That's all that could be achieved from the military point of view. The question is about next year, whether Ukraine will be prepared, not in a way it was pressured last year to a counteroffensive in an unacceptable way.
To think about real peace, not a frozen conflict, Ukraine has to prevail. It doesn’t mean that Ukraine will regain all that is lost for now. It’s hard to say, and it’s for Ukraine to decide that. But nevertheless, Russia should be defeated this way or the other. And in that sense, it is important to have countries, especially from Global South, behind Ukraine.
On the right side of history…
Yes, absolutely. This here is obvious. Ukrainians didn't attack Russia, didn't murder Russians in Belgorod region. The situation is absolutely clear. What is just and what is wrong is clear.
DEMOCRACIES LOVE QUIET TIMES
As someone who studied history, do you see any similarities between the way the allies are now responding to the prospects of potential escalation with Russia and the way world powers reacted to Nazi Germany's initial acts of aggression against their neighbors? Have leaders drawn lessons from the tragic history of WW2?
Appeasement -- this was the word that was used to describe the situation especially after the Maidan and during the first wave of Russian aggression – Crimea, Donbas. At the same time, you had these Minsk talks. Germany was eager to build Nord Stream 2.
Democracies like quiet times. They try to avoid problems instead of solving them. My opinion is that we have a number of politicians but we don't have statesmen who can go out to the people and say: “Sorry, the situation is such and such, we have to make a difficult choice. You have to do something.” But politicians are used to saying nice things to people instead of providing them with difficult choices. Because sometimes they are rejected. It was the situation of a number of great politicians in the 20th century. So the problem is that still people are thinking of what will happen in the next election. In Ukraine-Poland relations there were difficulties last year because we had elections.
This year there are too many elections in too many countries…
Yes, the U.S. elections, too. This is a weakness of democracy, especially when you have shortsighted politics while having to deal with such challenges as imperialist Russia. You cannot get too excited because this imperialist drive is long, that idea of conquering Europe, starting with the closest nations like Ukraine and Belarus.
So how can we compare politics aiming for one, three, four, or five years in power to ideas like those in Russia or China? They think 20 years, 30 years ahead.
So yes, there are parallels, there is something in the back of the mind of some politicians that doesn't allow them to do the right thing. Ukraine suffered because of that. Because at the beginning, a number of politicians thought that maybe, Ukraine can go for some compromise. They wouldn’t send additional weapons not to provoke a bigger war because they thought Russia would see this as escalation.
I hate two expressions: escalation and red lines. Because at the beginning of this war, Russia escalated to the maximum and crossed all the red lines. So why not react in a proper way?
Ukraine is paying an enormous price. In that sense, it would be unacceptable from the perspective of justice if Ukraine had to go for a compromise for nothing or for something it wouldn’t value enough.
In the sense, coming back to the Peace conference, what does peace mean? Peace means there will be no prospects for war. The only way is to not allow a security vacuum. In this case, NATO membership is very important. Just as the EU membership. The vacuum would encourage another dictator in Russia to start another war.
Ievgen Matiushenko
Photo: Serhiy Matsola